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MF= mutuel field horse. Bet one you get them all. x= coupled entry. Bet one you get the other. Odds were from the Churchill Downs morning line, Saturday, May 1, 1999.
Adonis took the prize in the Wood Memorial, but didn't defeat much competition in possibly extending himself too soon before the Derby. Maybe a nice horse to watch as he could cause trouble, but Stephen Got Even earns the money from Zito-trained horses.
If you believe in trends, here's one horse to ignore: no Breeders' Cup Juvenile Champion has ever won the Derby since that race's inception in 1984. Also, no 2-year old champion, which Answer Lively was last year, has won the Derby since Spectacular Bid in 1979. The morning line set him at 50-1. Save your money.
One of D. Wayne Lukas's strongest Derby contenders in years. Might be a perfect overlay, but don't put money down on this horse until you know you'll get a decent return. Not a great bet as a favorite, and may chase away supporters due to concerns over his lack of stamina. A difficult horse to dismiss, but it's also difficult seeing this horse in the winner's circle.
Now this horse could surprise. Definitely an option for your wilder bets, but will he be tired after his most recent win? A horse has got to be on an even playing field to win, and the extra week off he misses will hurt. His connections earn him a look, however. His trainer is due for a Derby win, and has been there before with Winning Colors, Thunder Gulch and Grindstone, as has his jockey with Sea Hero, and his owners with Silver Charm. The group around this horse obviously knows what it's doing. Too bad the connections don't run the race; despite Charimatic's fine breeding he looks outclassed in this group.
A solid sire in Sea Hero, Derby '93 champ, but that's about it. Not getting much respect, though his breeding keeps him in some people's trifectas. In a 19-horse field, a horse really needs to stand out, and unfortunately this one doesn't. The only horse in the field whose sire won a Derby; Call to the Derby Post admits it would be fun to watch this horse win.
Might not even make it into the race due to the flap surrounding Valhol, but if he does he deserves attention despite his high odds. Elliot Walden is as hot a trainer now as anybody, and even though stamina is not in his blood, this horse has proven his toughness and possibly an ability to charge late. Maybe in another year Ecton Park would not be part of the mutuel field, but as such Call to the Derby Post will necessarily turn away.
Ahh. The filly that Bob Baffert is entering in the Derby. How do you reconcile this horse along with General Challenge and Prime Timber? This is as solid a trio you'll find entered in by one trainer. Bob Baffert has simply proved he can master the Derby, so you've got to believe he's going to do everything possible to set the Derby record for three straight wins by a trainer. Baffert knows you have to bet him somehow on the Derby--is he throwing in another horse to spread out that money and to get a higher payback?
Fails the dosage index test. So did Real Quiet, whose sire was Quiet American. Guess who else Quiet American sired? That's right: First American. It puts the dosage index on some shaky ground to use as an immediate disqualifier...which might bring you back to Menifee. Lack of experience and finishes in the money might make this horse a stretch, though CTTDP is happy to see Mr. Delahoussaye back in the Derby. He won the Derby aboard Gato Del Sol in 1982 and Sunny's Halo in 1983.
Once again Bob Baffert is threatening a 1-2 finish in the Derby, like he has done the past two years at the Santa Anita Derby, and damn near pulled off in last year's Derby with winner Real Quiet and show finisher Indian Charlie. The man is too hot to ignore, and this horse may be his best. Call to the Derby Post has been high on this horse for a long time, but will probably avoid him at the betting window due to the inevitable low return he will offer as a favorite and the fact no gelding has won the Derby since 1929. Still, avoid wagering on Baffert's horses at your own risk.
Has proved he can compete with the big boys, and may be the horse to watch as continuing the trend of Derby winners not winning their previous race before the Derby. It could be that this horse has his best yet to come, but Kimberlite Pipe is generally a speed horse, and speed horses don't usually fair well in the Kentucky Derby. Takes a step down in plausability due to his placement in the mutuel field.
Who the heck is this horse? This is the absolute last reason to not bet on a Derby horse, but it can still apply in this case. No horse with that kind of name will be a Derby champion. Will be surprised if he finishes in the first ten.
Don't be fooled and save your money. Too much competition in the 20-horse field for this poor sucker to compete. Might be peaking at the right time, and is a descendant of Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew. Still, that's not enough to carry this horse in a race of this magnitude.
A very difficult call. Certainly a magnificent horse with terrific connections. With Pat Day aboard is at least a $2 win bet just to cover the bases. Unfortunately, Menifee fails the Dosage Index test, a tough break when handicapping this horse. Menifee is racing very well right now, won his last start in the Blue Grass Stakes, is working out well for the Derby and will be a top five betting favorite. As far as wagering goes, this is probably the toughest horse in the field to handle.
Looked solid when beating the true best of Baffert's horses, Exploit, in the San Felipe, and then looked even better placing in the Santa Anita with an injured foot. A fantastic horse who has an excellent chance to win, but will go off as no worse than the second-favorite, which might trim interest in actually betting on him. One might want to avoid the higher-favored Baffert horse in lieu of trying to get back larger winnings. That was the beauty of Real Quiet in '98, and the same for D. Wayne Lukas's Thunder Gulch, whose stablemate Timber Country was the favorite in '95.
This horse is improving and hasn't shown us his top game yet. You like that going into the Derby. Nick Zito provides some championship training, which makes it odd that this horse hasn't raced in over a month. Will the layoff help him or hurt him? Either way, Zito's stable of Stephen Got Even and Adonis will prove just as formidable as Baffert's trio of horses. Don't forget that Zito is aiming for his third Derby victory as well.
A very formidable horse who has put up some impressive speed figures. But this filly has been out of action for awhile, and may have too much competition in Excellent Meeting much less the rest of the field. Another drawback is her running style: horse who go for the lead early, which Three Ring is expected to do, don't generally last the long Derby distance of 1 1/4 miles. Still, she has some damn impressibe breeding, and has garnered some respect deep within the thoroughbred training community. Might be Call to the Derby Post's horse to consider as a legitimate longshot.
Regardless of the controversy from the Arkansas Derby, Call to the Derby Post's attention isn't drawn to this horse. He did beat a field of Derby contenders in the Arkansas Derby, and even held off General Challenge in the Louisiana Derby, but the thorough competition in this race will be too much for him. The distraction makes him even more of a risk at the betting window.
A charmer that is surprisingly quiet in this crowd of favorites. Will the hot Shane Sellers ride? Will Carl Nafzger open the decade (Unbridled in '90) and close it? The only drawback to this contender is that he may go for the lead too soon and be tracked down during the home stretch. If his consistent, hard training pays off, maybe Vicar can hold on. If the Baffert and Zito horses garner most of the betting attention, you might be able to find value here, which would be very difficult to pass up.
What a nuisance this horse is turning out to be. After Arazi in '91 and Hello in '97 Call to the Derby Post had pretty much sworn off foreign horses in the Derby. But there is a lot of mystery surrounding his training, and he was actually born in Kentucky and once trained by Bob Baffert. Has shown strength, but you follow Derby trends to pick a winner, and the fact is no foreign horse has ever won the Derby. If you lose on a trend like that, so be it. You've got to cut horses somehow, but this is a very difficult to horse to cut out. Along with Menifee and Cat Thief poses the greatest difficult at the betting window. |
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