Kentucky Derby 128 Tipsheet
HORSE	JOCKEY	TRAINER
War Emblem	Victor Espinoza	Bob Baffert
Proud Citizen	Mike Smith	D. Wayne Lukas
Perfect Drift	Eddie Delahoussaye	Murray Johnson
Medaglia d'Oro	Laffit Pincay	Bobby Frankel
Request For Parole	Robby Albarado	Steve Margolis
Came Home	Chris McCarron	Paco Gonzales
Harlan's Holiday	Edgar Prado	Kenny McPeek
Johannesburg	Gary Stevens	Aidan O'Brien
Essence of Dubai	David Flores	Saeed bin Suroor
Saarland	John Velazquez	Shug McGaughey
Blue Burner	Pat Day	Bill Mott
Castle Gandolfo	Jerry Bailey	Aidan O'Brien
Easy Grades	Jorge Chavez	Ted West
Private Emblem	Donnie Meche	Steve Asmussen
Lusty Latin	Glenn Corbett	Jeff Mullins
It'sallinthechase	Eddie Martin, Jr.	Wilson Brown
Ocean Sound	Alex Solis	James Cassidy
Wild Horses	Rene Douglas	Todd Pletcher

Saarland

The son of 1990 Derby champ Unbridled, Saarland is one of the few Derby contenders who is a direct descendant of a Derby winner. Hasn't shown his true potential yet this season, and was a bit of a disappointment in the Gotham Stakes. Trailed throughout most of the Wood Memorial, but his finish -- and his ability to close -- showed signs that the Derby distance may fit him perfectly. His lack of victories this season will cause him to be ignored, but he's got the talent. A low price with this horse's potential makes him an appealing bet. His recent throat surgery offers another reason why improvement may beckon. Plus, he's connections have the sentimental story. We like home most of all because his pedigree and potential to improve are both greater than any other horse in the field.  

Medaglia d'Oro

Besides the fact we're suckers for Laffit Pincay, we're not quite sure what to make of this one. He ran a fine race in the Wood, but will have only four career starts going into the Derby -- a major strike against him as no Derby winner since Exterminator in 1918 has won with only four career starts. Looked sharp in the Wood, and only the rail allowed Buddha to come in first in that race. A talented horse, but experience and distance questions remain. Like his counterpart Buddha from the Wood, a candidate to take a step back.  

Essence of Dubai

He's as much of a mystery as any of the other Godolphin horses of the past, but keep in mind that the Godolphin horses have competed gamely in past Derbies. He's got the normal questions surrounding him, particularly his training schedule and how he'll fare against tougher competition after the long trip to Kentucky. But against a weaker-than-usual Derby field, and considering the strength of Godolphin's and Suroor's past performances, he's got to be considered as a serious contender. A son of former Derby runner Pulpit, this is the only horse in the field to have already run 1 1/4 miles. If he stays at or near his morning line odds, he'll represent the best value for talent on the board.  

Easy Grades

Came in second in both of the key preps in California, and after Gary Stevens said this one deserves a shot in Kentucky because of a mishap with his bridle in the Santa Anita Derby, we were convinced. A grandson of Easy Goer. Showed tremendous heart in the Santa Anita Derby, and should not be overlooked. Could offer a fantastic value on the board, because he is likely to be too ignored for a horse of his talent and racing ability. Will be trying to buck a major trend as geldings tend to underperform in the Derby -- it's a major strike against a horse we think has major talent. A real live shot to hit the board, especially at his price.  

Harlan's Holiday

The extra distance in the Florida Derby finally gave this horse a real chance to knock off rival Booklet. His performance in the Blue Grass was just as impressive. People may consider him a weak Derby favorite, but the bottom line is that there this is very little to dislike about this grandson of Triple Crown winner Affirmed. He'll offer a great price for a favorite, and is even showing signs that he's improving and is anxious to take on the Derby distance. We question who he has knocked off in his earlier races, which is why we've bumped down a few spots, but truth be told, this horse has done absolutely nothing wrong this prep race season. At the least, he's a deserving favorite, but will a Derby win make his spring too good to be true?  

Johannesburg

Look, no winner of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile has yet won the Kentucky Derby. The last horse to win the Derby off of one prep race as a 3-year-old was Bold Venture in 1936, and the last horse to win the Derby without first racing 1 1/8 miles was Middleground in 1950 -- and Johannesburg will be trying to break all these trends. Great talent, but too many trends going against him. We've been on foreign horses in the Derby before, and therefore remain quite skeptical. His loss in Ireland is hard to gauge, but again, there are more reasons not to bet him than to take a chance on him. Talent and potential alone aren't enough in the Run for the Roses, but the fact he's a dual qualifier in a weak field makes it hard for us to dismiss him completely.   

Perfect Drift

Enters the Derby after a six-week layoff, which no horse has done succesfully at at the Derby since 1956. A real dark horse, not just because he's a longshot but because he's inexperienced and lack of exposure don't leave us a lot to go on. A risky bet to us, but those at the track say this one is one of the better looking colts in the race.

Proud Citizen

Well, wouldn't you know it? Guess who decided to show up at Derby 128? Just when you had the nightmare memories of Charismatic sweeped away from your brains, here comes another D. Wayne Lukas-trained horse winning the Coolmore Lexington Stakes and on his way to the Derby. Not sure what to make of this horse, but if ever there was a field that was set up as a repeat to 1999, this could be it. Weak fields yield strange results, and no one is smoother in taking advantage of that than the master D. Wayne Lukas.  

Lusty Latin

In a Derby that is set to break one of its longstanding trends -- particularly in terms of experience leading up to the Derby -- Lusty Latin adds another possible wrench. This grey horse would be the first colt to break his maiden in the Derby since Broker's Tip in 1933. Sounds compelling for the history books, but this inexperienced horse could be overwhelmed on Derby Day. Still, he's one of many contenders who could bust through the pack for third or fourth -- or just as likely finish up the track.  

Came Home

Like Harlan's Holiday, this horse has done nothing wrong this prep race season, and deserves to be one of the favorites. Many question his ability to go the distance, but the fact is, this horse has the heart of a champion. He's impeccably trained, getting stronger, and is first-class on the track. Can a horse who's won six of seven career starts and three in row keep that streak alive through the Kentucky Derby? Only legendary horses have done it -- is he one of them? In a weak field when all else is equal, a race like the Derby just might come down to heart.

Castle Gandolfo

All of the same connections as Johannesburg, plus he's got Jerry Bailey, which is a huge bonus for this colt. But he's even more lightly raced than even some of the other Derby contenders, and with this group of largely untested colts, that's saying something. We feel he doesn't have the preparation, hasn't faced the competition, and, while he might have talent and a world-class jockey, has too many hurdles to overcome to seriously threaten.   

Ocean Sound

Hit the board in a Derby prep race, and you too can run in the Kentucky Derby. Still, unlike some of the other top contenders in the race, at least this one has experience from this season, having run in the Blue Grass Stakes, the Rebel Stakes, and the San Rafael Stakes. A game competitor who could really bust some people's exotics, but it's hard to figure him in your betting or to see him in the winner's circle. He's being treated lightly, but has just a good a shot as any other to be this year's Invisible Ink.  

Wild Horses

We're telling you, the bottom of this year's Derby field is making us long for the days of the mutuel field. This second-place finisher of the Arkansas Derby probably doesn't belong in a race of the Derby's magnitude. Truth be told, this horse does have a nice pedigree, and comes from solid connections. It wouldn't surprise us if he put up a surprise performance, but that still means far from hitting the board.  

War Emblem

The sale of this colt to the Thoroughbred Corporation means he's now headed to the Derby, and means that Bob Baffert is headed to the Derby as well. A fine colt that probably doesn't have the distance nor the inate talent to win on the first Saturday of May, and will probably tire after going for the lead early.  

Blue Burner

Not what we wanted to see in the Wood. He took a major step back in not firing in that race, and leaves little to inspire us heading into the Derby. Jerry Bailey's decision to ride Castle Gandolfo instead of him is another strike.  

Private Emblem

Will be trying to become the first horse born in New York to win the Derby, and the first Arkansas Derby winner since Sunny's Halo in 1983 to win in Louisville on the first Saturday of May, though the Arkansas Derby has produced Derby winners since then, like Lil E. Tee, who came in second in the Arkansas Derby but won the Run for the Roses in 1992. He's got distance questions, but among this group, who doesn't? Will be taking a big step up in the Derby, though.  

Request For Parole

If we're going to bet on a horse that hasn't raced since the Spiral Stakes, we're going to go with the horse who at least won that race, Perfect Drift. This one does have a total of 10 career starts, so at least he's been around the track. This year's Derby is just full of horses that have given us so little to go in terms of handicapping. We haven't seen how a horse like this could become a Derby champion, so we can't justify betting on him. More power to those with Derby fever who want to run in the race; we simply don't have that much extra cash around.  

It'sallinthechase

A ninth-place finish in the Arkansas Derby is enough to leave us wondering about this one. Tough to swallow this horse getting in when talent like Sunday Break is on the sidelines. A third-place finish in the Louisiana Derby is what got him here, but that's not enough to seriously consider him in our Derby bets.