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Contact Call to the Derby Post


Here is Call to the Derby Post's tipsheet for Derby 129:
Post Position -- HORSE (Odds)JOCKEYTRAINER
12 -- Empire Maker (6-5)Jerry BaileyBobby Frankel
16 -- Ten Most Wanted (6-1)Pat DayWally Dollase
8 -- Buddy Gil (8-1)Gary StevensJeff Mullins
5 -- Peace Rules (8-1)Edgar PradoBobby Frankel
6 -- Funny Cide (15-1)Jose SantosBarclay Tagg
4 -- Atswhatimtalknbout (12-1)David FloresRon Ellis
9 -- Indian Express (12-1)Tyler BazeBob Baffert
17 -- Scrimshaw (50-1)Cornelio VelasquezD. Wayne Lukas
7 -- Offlee Wild (30-1)Robby AlbaradoThomas V. Smith
2 -- Brancusi (30-1)Tony FarinaPatrick Biancone
14 -- Ten Cents A Shine (50-1)Mike SmithD. Wayne Lukas
1 -- Supah Blitz (50-1)Rosemary Homeister, Jr.Emanuel Tortora
10 -- Lone Star Sky (50-1)Calvin BorelTom Amoss
13 -- Eye of the Tiger (50-1)Eibar CoaJerry Hollendorfer
11 -- Domestic Dispute (30-1)Alex SolisPaddy Gallagher
15 -- Outta Here (50-1)Kent DesormeauxWilliam Currin
Empire Maker looks healthy and is clearly the one to beat. His greatest competition is the jinx against the Derby favorite, not from any horse in the field. While the price isn't great, he's too good to overlook, and with Bailey aboard, is guaranteed the best trip possible. Ten Most Wanted will be bet down due to his performance in the Illinois Derby and his training this week, not to mention jockey Pat Day. One of the few horses in the field who can handle the Derby distance. Buddy Gil is a gamer and one of the most competitive horses in the field, and should challenge.

Empire Maker

Jockey: Jerry Bailey
Post Position and Morning Line Odds: 12 (6-5)Trainer: Bobby Frankel
Last Race: Wood Memorial (1st)Owner: Juddmonte Farm
Pedigree: : Unbridled -- Toussuad (El Gran Senor)

After his record setting win in the Florida Derby (he won by the greatest margin ever in the 52-year old history of the race) this colt immediately became the leading Derby favorite. By following it up with his win in the Wood Memorial, he now is not only the heavy Derby favorite, but is the biggest Derby favorite since Arazi in 1992 (an auspicious comparison). Jockey Jerry Bailey didn't even use his whip in the Wood Memorial, so Empire Maker may still have plenty of energy left for the Derby. Bobby Frankel is due for a Derby win. Reports of a bruise on his right front foot will make his price drop a little, and really, there is no way to tell how healthy that foot is. History doesn't treat the Derby favorite well, but it's hard leaving Empire Maker out of Derby bets.  



Ten Most Wanted

Jockey: Pat Day
Post Position and Morning Line Odds: 16 (6-1)Trainer: Wally Dollase
Last Race: Illinois Derby (1st)Owner: James Chisholm, Michael Jarvis, and Horizon Stable
Pedigree: : Deputy Commander -- Wanted Again (Criminal Type)

After his impressive run in the Illinois Derby, producer of last year's Derby winner, War Emblem, Ten Most Wanted is working out great in Louisville, and bundled with energy and looking to roar. With Pat Day aboard (though slightly injured with a bad back), and with a solid pedigree, this colt all of a sudden looks quite live for the Kentucky Derby. The presence of Pat Day will drop his price at Churchill Downs, but this horse is looking to take a step-up in class and show them what he's got. Closed very strongly in his last race, showing he might have what it takes to go the distance, something a lot of other Derby contenders are still wondering about.   



Buddy Gil

Jockey: Gary Stevens
Post Position and Morning Line Odds: 8 (8-1)Trainer: Jeff Mullins
Last Race: Santa Anita Derby (1st)Owner: Desperado Stables, Johnson, McFadden, Shriber & Seversen
Pedigree: : Echo -- Really Rising (For Really)

Won the San Felipe Stakes despite a terrible trip, and won the Santa Anita Derby in a stirring trip, just holding on by a nose to win. Critics will continue to raise concerns of distance capability, but the fact is this horse is competitive and will put up a fight, and with Gary Stevens aboard, there's no reason to think this horse won't be expertly handled in a longer-than-usual race. Missed a little bit of training after bleeding in the Santa Anita, but is as competitive as any horse in the Derby field, and deserves to be classed with Empire Maker and Peace Rules as horses to win not one but two major Derby preps. Some fear the gelding jinx of 1929 Derby winner Clyde Van Dusen, but Buddy Gil has been training quite well, and many will be giving him a lot of attention.  



Peace Rules

Jockey: Edgar Prado
Post Position and Morning Line Odds: 5 (8-1)Trainer: Bobby Frankel
Last Race: Blue Grass (1st)Owner: Edmund Gann
Pedigree: : Jules -- Hold To Fashion (Hold Your Peace)

If all accolades are going to Empire Maker for winning his last two races, what about Peace Rules, who won the Louisiana Derby and the Blue Grass Stakes? Even trainer Bobby Frankel questions this colt's ability to handle the Derby distance, but betting the "Frankel double" at the Derby might not be a bad idea, nor trifectas with Empire Maker, Peace Rules and a third. Saved some energy in the Blue Grass by not going full-tilt, and if the price is right, could be an attractive bet at the Derby. From War Emblem to Peace Rules? It sounds nice, at the least. Won't be able to win the Derby like he did the Blue Grass, namely, wire-to-wire. Will have to show he can come from behind if he really is going to threaten on Derby Day.  



Funny Cide

Jockey: Jose Santos
Post Position and Morning Line Odds: 6 (15-1)Trainer: Barclay Tagg
Last Race: Wood Memorial (2nd)Owner: Sackatoga Stables
Pedigree: : Distorted Humor -- Belle's Good Cide (Slewacide)

One thing we don't like about this horse is that he hasn't won any of the Derby preps so far this season, and generally a Derby winner has stood in the winner's circle at least once in the winter and spring before the Derby. Still, with the way he ran with Empire Maker in the Wood, it's tough to say he can't compete, and could be a game competitor in Louisville. Unlikely to be able to handle the distance, but he's improved in each of his last few outings, which sets him apart from others. Quite overlooked so far this Derby week, so the price might be right. Also a gelding, plus no New York-bred horse has ever won the Derby. Not a bad choice to put underneath in exotics.  



Atswhatimtalknbout

Jockey: David Flores
Post Position and Morning Line Odds: 4 (12-1)Trainer: Ron Ellis
Last Race: Santa Anita Derby (4th)Owner: B. Wayne Hughes & Biscuit Stables
Pedigree: : A.P. Indy -- Lucinda K (Red Ransom)

Despite his run-on name, which we would not like for a Derby winner, progeny of A.P. Indy will always draw attention, especially when they close like this one did in the San Felipe. It wasn't his day at Santa Anita, however, but if you're willing to throw out a race, and consider the historical strength and performance of Santa Anita Derby fields in the Triple Crown then maybe you could still consider this one a shot in Louisville. His poor showing in the Santa Anita could lead to him being an underlay on Derby Day, so if he offers an attractive price, don't be afraid to pull the trigger and cover him in some of your bets. Still, for us, his lack of having won a stakes race is enough to throw us off his bandwagon, but he's this high on the list because we recognize his talent.  



Indian Express

Jockey: Tyler Baze
Post Position and Morning Line Odds: 9 (12-1)Trainer: Bob Baffert
Last Race: Santa Anita Derby (2nd)Owner: Phil Chess
Pedigree: : Indian Charlie -- Liba's Choice (Halo)

Came out of nowhere to finish second in the Santa Anita, but was that a fluke or not? Has got an impressive pedigree, but his career performances, including a few wins in Panama, leave many questions about his ability to run and compete on this level. Many will fear he will be taking a huge step up in class in the Derby, but Baffert has pulled magic tricks before. Will be making only his fifth career start in the Derby, a major strike against him. 12-1 morning line odds seem to make him on overlay, but he's another one some consider a shot to hit the board, though we're not convinced.  



Scrimshaw

Jockey: Cornelio Velasquez
Post Position and Morning Line Odds: 17 (50-1)Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Last Race: Lexington Stakes (1st)Owner: Bob and Beverly Lewis
Pedigree: : Gulch (Sham)

Well, what do you know? Just when you thought you would not have to consider any of the tricks of D. Wayne Lukas in this year's Derby handicapping comes Scrimshaw, winner of the Lexington Stakes who Lukas is now very high on. Could he be the next Charismatic or Proud Citizen? Why not? After the last two Lukas-trained colts to win the Lexington performed so well in Louisville, not considering this one seriously could be a major mistake. Again, look for horses that are improving, and this one is. Impossible to ignore even though he is not as experienced as Charismatic or Proud Citizen. You've just got to have D. Wayne Lukas covered in your bets somehow.  



Offlee Wild

Jockey: Robbie Albardo
Post Position and Morning Line Odds: 7 (30-1)Trainer: Thomas V. Smith
Last Race: Blue Grass Stakes (3rd)Owner: Azalea Stables
Pedigree: : Wild Again -- Alvear (Seattle Slew)

Although this one hasn't improved substantially since his win in the Holy Bull Stakes, this horse continues to run well, and has been consistent in hitting the board. Consider in exotics, and maybe even more if you are looking for a live longshot. Has got the breeding to go the distance, so keep an eye on him. Has a great pedigree, and looks to be improving after a break in his training. Pat Day chose to go with Ten Most Wanted, but this one still might have a shot to hit the board.  



Brancusi

Jockey: Tony Farina
Post Position and Morning Line Odds: 2 (30-1)Trainer: Patrick Biancone
Last Race: Blue Grass Stakes (2nd)Owner: Michael Tabor
Pedigree: : Deputy Commander -- Treize (Alysheba)

A fantastic pedigree, with his sire being Deptuy Commander (also sire of Ten Most Wanted) and his grandsire being 1987 Derby winner Alysheba. Ran a gutsy second in the Blue Grass, but has shown a disturbing inability to close off races, as he's won only one of seven career starts.  



Ten Cents A Shine

Jockey: Mike Smith
Post Position and Morning Line Odds: 14 (50-1)Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Last Race: Blue Grass Stakes (8th)Owner: Ken & Sarah Ramsey
Pedigree: : Devil His Due -- Aunt Mottz (Honey Jay)

As this colt's owner pointed out, D. Wayne Lukas has had his best luck at the Derby with longshots, not with favorites. With Scrimswhaw bound to get attention after his win in in the Lexington Stakes, Ten Cents A Shine moves in as not just a second starter for Lukas, but his longest shot. This horse ran second to last in his most recent race, hardly a way to prep for the world's greatest horse race. But, he's been working well and apparently healed from some health problems, and far be it from us to question the judgment of Lukas. Will be a stretch to hit the board at best.  



Supah Blitz

Jockey: Rosemary Homeister, Jr.
Post Position and Morning Line Odds: 1 (50-1)Trainer: Emanuel Tortora
Last Race: Aventura Stakes (2nd)Owner: Bee Bee Stables, Inc. and Jacqueline Tortora
Pedigree: : Mecke -- Boots'n Jackie (Major Moran)

Finished second in his last race, coming in behind Dynever, who looked absolutely fantastic. Is this horse seasoned enough? Does this colt belong in this class? Two questions that probably should be answered in the negative, but this one is a gamer and could compete better than expected. We think he's a longshot to hit the board, but won't be surprised if he comes through with a strong effort. His jockey, Rosemary Homeister Jr., will be only the fifth female rider in the Derby, and the first since 1995.  



Lone Star Sky

Jockey: Calvin Borel
Post Position and Morning Line Odds: 10 (50-1) Trainer: Tom Amoss
Last Race: Illinois Derby (4th)Owner: Walter L. New
Pedigree: : Conquistador Cielo -- Ministrada (Deputy Minister)

This one looks like a case of Derby fever, but the colt is training well. The question is does he belong on this level. Has actually fared well in some of his earlier career stakes races, but his fourth place finish in the Illinois Derby does not inspire confidence at this class level. Not a flyer we're seriously considering.  



Eye of the Tiger

Jockey: Eibar Coa
Post Position and Morning Line Odds: 13 (50-1)Trainer: Jerry Hollendorfer
Last Race: Wood Memorial (5th)Owner: John D. Gunther
Pedigree: : American Chance -- Dial a Trick (Phone Trick)

Finished second in the Lexington Stake in his last race -- and even the winner of that race has morning line odds of 50-1. The Derby will be only this horse's second start around two turns; the biggest horse race in the world is not the place to be getting adjusted to longer distances. This horse hasn't won a race longer than six furlongs, and probably doesn't belong in the Derby field.  



Domestic Dispute

Jockey: Alex Solis
Post Position and Morning Line Odds: 11 (30-1)Trainer: Paddy Gallagher
Last Race: Lexington Stakes (3rd)Owner: David Bienstock & Chuck Winner
Pedigree: : Unbridled's Song -- Majestical Moment (Magesterial)

This one won the San Felipe Stakes in January, and came in third recently in the Lexington Stakes, but has not won a race since the San Felipe. Has disappointed in the Derby prep season, and ex-trainer Bob Baffert, no random opinion on the matter, had already dismissed this horse from the Derby trail. But a change in ownership, and just like that Domestic Dispute is in. One of the longest shots of the field, no reason to put any money down here.  



Outta Here

Jockey: Kent Desormeaux
Post Position and Morning Line Odds: 15 (50-1)Trainer: William Currin
Last Race: UAE Derby (4th)Owner: William Currin and Al Eisman
Pedigree: : Dehere -- Just Out (Forty Niner)

Simply put, this horse doesn't really belong in the Derby field, and worse, hasn't proven he deserves a shot at the Kentucky Derby. Has raced only once this year, finishing fourth in the UAE Derby. A colt that may have a positive future, but provides no reason to draw any attention on Derby Day.