Kentucky Derby 132 Order of Finish (Post Position--Final Odds)
1. Barbaro (Post 8, 6-1) 2. Bluegrass Cat (Post 13, 30-1) 3. Steppenwolfer (Post 2, 16-1) 4. Jazil (Post 1, 24-1) 5. Brother Derek (Post 18, 7-1) 6. Showing Up (Post 6, 25-1) 7. Sweetnorthernsaint (Post 11, 5-1) 8. Deputy Glitters (Post 14, 60-1) 9. Point Determined (Post 5, 9-1) 10. Seaside Retreat (Post 15, 50-1)	11. Storm Treasure (Post 19, 50-1) 12. Lawyer Ron (Post 17, 10-1) 13. Cause to Believe (Post 16, 25-1) 14. Flashy Bull (Post 20, 40-1) 15. Private Vow (Post 12, 40-1) 16. Sinister Minister (Post 4, 9-1) 17. Bob and John (Post 7, 12-1) 18. A.P. Warrior (Post 10, 14-1) 19. Sharp Humor (Post 9, 30-1) 20. Keyed Entry (Post 3, 25-1)
HORSE	JOCKEY	TRAINER
Brother Derek	Alex Solis	Dan Hendricks
Lawyer Ron	John McKee	Bob Holthus
Sweetnorthernsaint	Kent Desormeaux	Michael Trombetta
Point Determined	Rafael Bejarano	Bob Baffert
A.P. Warrior	Corey Nakatani	John Shirreffs
Jazil	Fernando Jara	Kiaran McLaughlin
Barbaro	Edgar Prado	Michael Matz
Bob and John	Garret Gomez	Bob Baffert
Steppenwolfer	Robby Albarado	Daniel Peitz
Sinister Minister	Victor Espinoza	Bob Baffert
Showing Up	Cornelio Velasquez	Barclay Tagg
Sharp Humor	Mark Guidry	Dale Romans
Private Vow	Shaun Bridgmohan	Steve Asmussen
Keyed Entry	Patrick Valenzuela	Todd Pletcher
Bluegrass Cat	Ramon Dominguez	Todd Pletcher
Storm Treasure	David Flores	Steve Asmussen
Cause to Believe	Russell Baze	Jerry Hollendorfer
Deputy Glitters	Jose Lezcano	Thomas Albertrani
Seaside Retreat	Patrick Husbands	Mark Casse
Flashy Bull	Mike Smith	Kiaran McLaughlin
It seems clear that Derby 132 will be dictated by the early pace, and it seems highly unlikely there won't be tremendous speed up front to open the way for a stalker or closer to clean up in the end. Likewise, simiar to Derby 131, it appears that as a group, the California horses are a cut above the rest. While he hasn't won a major Derby prep, Point Determined has the pedigree to get the Derby distance, is training beautifully at Churchill Downs, is trained by three-time Derby winner Bob Baffert and is well-suited to enjoy the expected set-up of the race. Sweetnorthernsaint, simply put, is a fast horse who, barring any traffic problems, is a lock to contend. Watch out if he is able to rate off the leaders and save ground. You can't ignore the favorite, Brother Derek, because he may actually be the best horse in the field. We're concerned about his ability to lay back, but a horse with this much class has to be considered. We've gone back and forth on the longshot closer expected to jump up and grab a piece of the action, but we've settled on Jazil because of his pedigree. Who makes us nervous? Both Bob and John and A.P. Warrior strike us horses who could threaten, but we're focusing on Point Determined, Sweetnorthernsaint and Brother Derek.
The Day After: We made the decision to go against Barbaro because of the five-week layoff he had going into the Derby, and his general lack of prep race seasoning. It was a risk, but in this case the horse turned out to be stronger than the trend. There were also questions surrounding Barbaro's pedigree and whether he could handle the Derby distance; clearly those questions have been answered. We knew how good a horse Barbaro was (or is) but let Derby trends get in the way. Point Determined never got into a groove, and was a disappointment. His lack of a Derby prep win restores some order to the way we should have been looking at things; we should have been more skeptical. Sweetnorthernsaint actually ran a decent race, but it turned out he was the one that couldn't handle the Derby distance. Brother Derek was very game, but his post position and a few bumps cost him any chance to win, though he closed a lot of ground at the end, proving if necessary that he doesn't have to run on the lead. He was just too far back, and too wide. The biggest surprise was Bluegrass Cat, who overcame an uninspiring prep race season to shed some dignity on his proud pedigree. Both Steppenwolfer and Jazil lived up to their billings as strong closers. The biggest bombs on the day were Bob and John and the very disappointing A.P. Warrior. Neither competed, though in fairness Bob and John may have had the worst trip of any in the entire field, and the A.P. Indy line continues to falter under A.P. Indy's bad Derby karma. We also wonder if Lawyer Ron, with 14 races under his belt, was a little spent. We're glad we stayed away from him. Overall, for a field this size, the race held to form. In light of Barbaro's margin of victory and final time, there is nothing else to say other than he was the best horse on this day, and every other day he's raced. Barbaro proved his class in Derby 132.

Brother Derek

Five career stakes wins earns Brother Derek the attention he deserves. His record of six wins in eight starts is indeed quite impressive, and he's now undefeated this year. What's more impressive is the way he's dominated the West Coast: he led wire-to-wire in the 1-mile San Rafael; he turned on the gas with ease turning for home in the Santa Catalina, and led wire-to-wire and pulled away in the stretch to take the Santa Anita Derby. There are certainly other Derby contenders this year that are strong, but none has shown the class Brother Derek has. You wonder how he will handle the large field of the Derby, and whether or not he will be able to run from off the pace. These are legitimate questions; you hate to send a horse out in the Derby looking to run a different style of race. That only leaves other horses, such as closers like Point Determined, left to clean up the pieces. Still, there is nothing on Brother Derek's resume to knock; he's a proven winner that even looks as if he's improving. The only knock against him is the constant struggle of Derby favorites; sometimes, the best horse simply doesn't win on the first Saturday in May.  

Lawyer Ron

Lawyer Ron has now won six straight races, and is 7-7 lifetime on dirt tracks. He has career earnings of over $1 million, and with his wins this year in the Risen Star Stakes, Southwest Stakes, Rebel Stakes and Arkansas Derby, he has got the look of a champion. After a slow start in the Rebel he ran four-wide and proved he can run and win by coming off the pace. He wanted to run and he wanted to win in the Arkansas Derby, and is nothing but class and power and speed. He is coming into the Derby with as strong a head of steam as any horse in the country. Some may knock the competition he has faced, but they said the same thing about Smarty Jones. Tough to remember a pair of horses like he and Brother Derek who both could easily lay claim to the title of Derby favorite.  

Sweetnorthernsaint

A rapidly improving horse who blew away a relatively decent field in the Illinois Derby, a prep race that has been represented well in the Kentucky Derby the last few years. There's simply nothing wrong with a horse than can run fast, and the fact that he pulled away in the long stetch at Hawthorne says maybe he can handle the Derby distance. Figures to be an underlay, but is one to be considered seriously seeing the way he has finished his last two races.  

Point Determined

We were really big fans of Point Given, so we're naturally inclined to like this horse, too. In the San Felipe, he looked like a horse that could use the extra distance that the Kentucky Derby will provide. He still has something to show, however. He looked exactly the same in the Santa Anita Derby, looking strong in the stretch. If the Derby is run like it was last year, with tired horses collapsing or not firing at the end, there could be room for this one to clean up. We'd like to be able to show a bit more speed than he has in the past so he can manage the huge Derby field and not fall too far back. But the price could be right for this one, and he is definitely one to consider in exotics and trifecta bets.   

A.P. Warrior

It looked as if this colt was fitting into form after his sudden win in the San Felipe Stakes, but it's tough to argue he improved his cause after his disappointing performance in coming third in the Santa Anita Derby. It's not that he didn't win; it's that he never threatened and was passed in the stretch by Point Determined. Not the way you want to send a horse into a race as long as the Kentucky Derby. We assume he'll go on to Kentucky for the Run for the Roses; we can't dismiss him completely because of his connections and his pedigree. But he'd have to run his lifetime best to hit the board on Derby Day, though the way the Derby has been run the past few years that has to be viewed as possible. Still, this colt has to be viewed, in terms of performance as a three-year-old, as a step below his peers.  

Jazil

Literally took stablemate Like Now's place in the Wood Memorial and on this tipsheet. But his surpise second in the Wood, especially with his strong finish, may be enough to get him into the Kentucky Derby. He's new to the Derby prep scene, and we admit we don't know a lot about him. But we do like a horse who knows how to finish, so we'll keep an open mind for now. He finished a dismal seventh in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, so it's tough to say who the real Jazil is.  

Barbaro

Sometimes horse players can outthink themselves (see: anyone who bet against Smarty Jones in the 2004 Kentucky Derby) If a horse wins every time he races, what's not to like? Barbaro has now won all five of his career starts, including three races on turf, one race in the slop and most recently the $1 million Florida Derby on a fast track. But now here come the questions of whether or not a horse coming into the Derby off of a five-week layoff can handle the demands of the Run for the Roses. Of all the Derby trends in recent years to bite the dust (a horse not winning a major Derby prep in Giacomo, a gelding winning for the first time since 1929 in Funny Cide) one of the last trends standing is the five-week lay-off rule. It's a shame, because we love this horse. He is supremely talanted, and he's a proven winner. But we don't like betting against trends, and we also question his stamina at the Derby distance.  

Bob and John

At one point, this horse looked like one of the strongest contenders on the West Coast. And being trained by Bob Baffert seemed liked even more of a bonus, especially after his win in the Sham Stakes. But Bob and John looked completely uninspiring in coming third as the even-money favorite in the San Felipe Stakes. He never contended for the lead, and was unable to switch into a high gear in the home stretch. But Baffert moved him to New York, and the move paid off after a win in the Wood Memorial. Bob and John ran a great race, and took the lead in the final furlong. He made a drastic improvement, and if Baffert can keep his growth coming, his one could really threaten on Derby Day. More than other horses on this list, Bob and John has shown the ability to stalk and to rate comfortably behind horses, so his style might suit the Derby perfectly.  

Steppenwolfer

This horse has shown he has got a great late kick, and with the way this year's Derby is shaping up as one full of speedsters and stalkers, perhaps there will be room, just like Giacomo last year, for a fast-closing horse to pick up the pieces in the end. This horse's sire was a strong contender in the Derby in 2000, coming in second. A win bet on this might be too much to ask, but he is definitely one to consider for exactas and trifectas. If the early pace is too hot, this colt could be there to take advantage of it.  

Sinister Minister

It appears jockey Garret Gomez has a decision to make, but we'd be shocked if he doesn't ride Bob and John in the Derby. What to make of this colt, who won the Blue Grass Stakes by the third-largest margin in the 80-year history of the race? You can say some of that is owed to the speed bias at Keeneland, but not all of it. While Bob Baffert gives this horse an even more appealing resume, our lack of faith in the Blue Grass Stakes and what it has sent the Derby in recent years makes us want to back off. We're much more likely to put money on Bob and John and Point Determined than this one. This horse has a future, but here's betting not one that starts on May 6.  

Showing Up

Really wowed them when his stormed to dominate the Blue Grass Stakes, but we've seen the last few Blue Grass Stakes winner come up the track on Derby Day. Harlan's Holiday, anyone? Or how about The Cliff's Edge? It was announced this week that Showing Up may have a foot injury that could prevent him from running on the first Saturday of May. No chance we'd bet on this horse; we distrust the performance in the Blue Grass at Keeneland, and even a rumor of a foot injury is enough to keep us away.  

Sharp Humor

He has the same sire as 2003 Derby winner Funny Cide, and ran very well in the Florida Derby in his first race around two turns. We questions if he has enough seasoning to withstand the rigors of the Kentucky Derby; he's probably still a little green. But he showed a tremendous amount of grit in going head-to-hed with Barbaro in the Florida Derby, and is clearly a very competitive horse. Whatever he does at the Derby, keep an eye on him the rest of the year.  

Private Vow

Private Vow has run two races this year, and didn't show much in either. He weakened late in the Arkansas Derby but still had enough to hit the board, and came in seventh in the Rebel Stakes. The feel on this horse is that he has yet to reach his potential, and we just don't see how a horse can improve that much in the hardest race of his life. Hard to see him competing, at this point, with some of the big names on this board.   

Keyed Entry

Surprised many with his upset win in the Hutcheson, but he looked like a cool cat in overtaking First Samurai and then cruising down the stretch. But in trying to learn to run off the pace, he wasn't quite able to pass long-shot winner Like Now in the Gotham Stakes. After being passed by two horses in the stretch in the Wood Memorial, it's possible he won't even run in the Derby, as he seems to be regressing. Either that, or needs a rest and should be pointed towards the Preakness. If he runs in the Derby, he'll be looking at a severe uphill climb.  

Bluegrass Cat

There's no other way to describe his performances in the Tampa Bay Derby and Blue Grass Stakes, his last two races, as anything other than a disappointment. While his pedigree and natural talent still demands respect, the shine is off Bluegrass Colt. Even if he runs in the Derby, he'll be a longshot and, believe it or not, outclassed.  

Storm Treasure

Clearly second to Sinister Minister in the Blue Grass; would seem to be making a huge jump up in class, at the moment, if he ran in the Derby. He's a litle unseasoned, and his lack of graded earnings may keep him out of the Derby. But given some more time to develop, this horse could turn into a contender for maybe the Preakness, or better yet some key races for his classmates this summer.  

Cause to Believe

A very nice colt who came up with a solid win in the California Derby, but then came up empty in coming third to runaway Illinois Derby winnner Sweetnorthernsaint. He's got a very solid pedigree, similar to that of 2002 Derby winner Monarchos. Even if the excuse that he didn't handle the track well in his last race is true, we question if this horse will be a bit overmatched against the top horses of his class. But unlike other Derby longshots, this one we actually are fond of, and wouldn't be terribly surprised to see him represent himself well on the first Saturday of May.  

Deputy Glitters

Stunned the world when he knocked off Bluegrass Cat in the Tampa Bay Derby, but crashed back down to Earth with a sixth place finish in the Wood Memorial. It's not known where he'll make his next race, but he doesn't seem to be among the top class of three-year-olds and would probably be overmatced in the Kentucky Derby.  

Seaside Retreat

It's one thing to throw out the Blue Grass Stakes, it's another to just dismiss a lame performance there. Despite some very positive workouts lately that indicate he has improved from that disaster, it just seems beyond reason he can come that far against this level of competition. He simply hasn't posed a threat in any of his prep races against his classmates, and it seems really unlikely that will change on Derby Day.  

Flashy Bull

While this horse will have last year's Derby-winning jockey aboard, and also shares the same sire as last year's Derby winner in Holy Bull, it seems this could needs a miracle to be competitive in the Derby. He last raced in the Florida Derby, where he finished an uninspiring seventh. Quite possibly the least deserving horse of a Derby appearance.